Reserve Bank of India Publications

Bjonnes and Rime find that private information plays an important role in the foreign exchange market and has a permanent effect on exchange rates. Order flows carrying this private information are hence important in determining exchange rates. Marsh and Rourke find that order flows from profit seeking financial institutions are positively correlated with exchange rate and flows from non-financial corporates are negatively correlated. They also find that the impact of order flow on exchange rate increases, as probability of flow from the informed source increases.

• On one hand, studies like Driskill show that the sticky price monetary model explains exchange rates well, while studies such as Backus show that the sticky price monetary model fails to explain the exchange rate behaviour.
• This increases the supply of the currency, causing the currency to depreciate again thereby eliminating the surplus and equalizing the BOP.
• With liberalization and development of foreign exchange and assets markets, variables such as capital flows, volatility in capital flows and forward premium have also became important in determining exchange rates.
• The market-based operations led to a progressive reduction in the quantum of securities with the Reserve Bank.
• This involves testing the most general model first and following various tests, moving to the most parsimonious model .

This led Flood and Rose to speculate that it is unlikely that any exchange rate model based only on economic fundamentals will prove adequate. This view is also supported by Baxter and Stockman who further explain that there are speculative forces in the foreign exchange market that are important in determining exchange rates, which are not reflected in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables. The microstructure theory of exchange rates provides an alternative view to the determination of exchange rates.

Major economies of the world like India, the USA, and Japan follow the floating exchange rate system. Besides the changes in the supply and demand of the currency in international markets, the exchange rate also depends on the socio-political state of a country. If the country’s vantage fx review socio-political state is unstable or at times in crisis, the currency depreciates. On the other hand, if the country is perceived to be economically stable, the currency appreciates. For the regular bond funds, the bond price falls whenever the interest rate rises.

1 Evolution Of Exchange Rate System

However, the government can intervene to stabilize the exchange rates of its currencies, if required, even if the currency follows the floating exchange rate system. In normal day to day functioning of markets, the exchange rate may fluctuate. The appreciation mainly occurs due to a favourable balance of payment situation .

The result that it is possible to beat the naïve model may be due to the fact that the intervention by the central bank may help to curb volatility arising due to demand-supply mismatch and stabilize the exchange rate. Other currencies, like the Gulf –Saudi Arabian riyal, UAE dirham, Kuwaiti dinar, rarely change. That is because those countries use a fixed exchange rate that only changes when the government does so. Their central banks have enough reserves in the form of foreign currency to control their currency worth. If the value of the local currency falls, the bank sells its US dollars for local currency.

1 Current Account Balance

When inflation is low, prices of goods and services rise at a slower pace. A country with a consistently lower inflation rate sees its currency appreciate, whereas a country with higher inflation sees its currency depreciate, which is often coupled by higher interest rates. Fixed exchange rate is determined by the government of the country or central bank and is not dependent on market forces.

The Foreign Exchange Floor Rate also limits the degree of speculative loss. Investors may use the floor rate as a reference to predict the rate movement. Devaluation of the currency can be strictly monitored and restricted if required. Macroeconomic indicators of a country affect the exchange rate in global markets and the investment flow, resulting in an overall increase in market efficiency. Foreign exchange reserves maintained by the Central Bank reduce significantly.

Table 1: Growth rate of GDP (% per year)

These results cast doubt on the practical value of order flow data for traders in the foreign exchange market. Using the linear Vector Error Correction Model , they extract information from the term structure of forward premia and produce outof- sample forecasts that outperform the forecasts from the random walk model. More recently, Della Corte, Sarno and Tsiakas, examine the predictive ability of exchange rate models based on lagged values of the forward premium and other macroeconomic variables, as compared to the random walk model. The study finds that the predictive ability of forward exchange rate premia has substantial economic value in predicting exchange rates compared to a random walk model. In case of non-sterilised intervention, say, purchase of foreign exchange not accompanied by contractionary open market operations, money supply increases, which reduces the rate of interest and increases demand.

2) To get an idea about the Bangladesh’s experience after adopting the floating exchange rate regime along with some neighboring country’s experience. Forex reserves- India’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen below $600 billion for the first time in a year as the RBI intervened in the forex market to defend the rupee. To correct deflationary gap, the central bank purchases the securities in the market through Open market operations . It refers to the buying and selling of government securities in the open market in order to expand or contract the amount of money in the banking system. Through OMO, the flow of money is increased and subsequently enhancing the purchasing power of the people. Repo rate refers to the rate at which the central bank lends to the commercial bank.

Experience of Bangladesh with different exchange rate regime

Thus, the loss of degrees of freedom due to overparameterisation does not affect the BVAR model as severely. The term si equals the standard error of a univariate autoregression for variable i. The ratio si /sj scales the variables to account for differences in units of measurement and allows the specification of the prior without consideration of the magnitudes of the variables.

The exchange rate defined as the price of foreign currency in domestic currency and the forward premium are therefore expected to be positively related. Looking at some of the comparable indicators, the turnover in the foreign exchange market has been an average of 7.6 times higher than the size of India’s balance xtreamforex review of payments during last five years (Table 3.2). With the deepening of foreign exchange market and increased turnover, income of commercial banks through treasury operations has increased considerably. The two-step adjustment of July 1991 effectively brought to a close the period of pegged exchange rate.

To assess the economic development of Bangladesh after adopting floating exchange rate regime, some data comparison has been made among three neighboring countries in South Asia; those are India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Macro-economic factors of growth rate of GDP, current balance and inflation situations of Bangladesh are considered here in comparison to the neighboring countries. Secondary data comes from different published sources like research reports, websites of Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Export promotion Bureau, IMF and ADB and different literatures on exchange rate regime etc.

There is no guarantee that the interest rate of the bond will rise with the same intensity of the market rates in a rising environment. As a result, the bondholder may experience an interest risk, where the bond may be underperforming than the market interest rate. Most Home Loan borrowers generally prefer taking loans on a floating interest rate.

There were also many studies, which investigated the reasons for the failure of monetary models. A floating exchange rate regime lets currencies find their level in the foreign exchange market. Contrary to a fixed exchange rate regime, where a currency is pegged to another Tokenexus review: always be a step ahead at a fixed rate, exchange rates in a floating exchange rate regime are determined by the interplay of supply and demand. A country is said to be on the gold standard when its central bank is obliged to give gold in exchange for its currency when presented to it.

Floating currencies are perceived as strong or weak depending on the market sentiment towards their country’s economy. For example, if a government is viewed as unstable, the currency is likely to depreciate as faith in their ability to regulate the economy declines. In the early 1940s, the United States and the United Kingdom began discussions to rebuild the world economy after the destruction of two world wars. Their goal was to create a fixed exchange rate system without the gold standard.